Economic uncertainty: Amid trade war and downwardly revised growth outlook

Post on: 09.07.2025

On July 1, the IMF sounded the alarm: with US tariffs at 31% on Swiss goods, national economic growth in 2025 is at risk (Reuters). In response, the government has revised its growth estimates downwards: SECO indicates +1.3% (instead of 1.4%), while the KOF Institute speaks of potential relapses into recession if tariffs increase further (Reuters).

Political and negotiating responses

• Switzerland has already started negotiations with Washington for an agreement aimed at a 10% tariff, welcomed by agricultural producers and manufacturing industries.
• Despite the commitment to EU agreements, compromises are being considered on fruit, fish and pharmaceutical products (Novartis, Roche).

Risk sectors and opportunities

• Industrial exports: precision instruments and luxury goods suffer, even if it remains a plan B on the EU market.
• Pharmaceutical: aims to preserve margins, diversifying foreign channels.
• Agriculture: awaits protections; dialogue with WTO is active on the ecological tariff front.

Medium-term challenge

The IMF warns: "trade uncertainty is a wake-up call". A mix of domestic stimulus, promotion of exports to third markets (Asia, Middle East) and fiscal stimulus measures to maintain competitiveness is envisaged.